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Ath Bilbao vs Alaves

Sat 19 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC · Round 7 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Ath Bilbao win: 47.7%

Draw: 31.3%

Alaves win: 21.0%

Predicted: Ath Bilbao

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 48.1%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 44.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.37

More corners: Ath Bilbao (60.3% home / 39.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Ath Bilbao

Yes

Probability Ath Bilbao wins or draws: 73.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Ath Bilbao Clearest lean of the available outcomes (48% vs next-best 31%). (48.0% model probability) Medium

Total Goals Under 2.5 (55.0% model probability) High

Corners Ath Bilbao (more corners) (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Ath Bilbao win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (73.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.